The five Tests at home between September and November, against Bangladesh (two) and New Zealand, were viewed as the perfect build-up to the big one, the five-Test series for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy from November 22. Having won the last two showdowns in Australia, India are primed for a hat-trick, though their preparations haven’t gone to plan over the last fortnight following successive losses at home for the first time since late 2012.

How much will these defeats to New Zealand dent India’s confidence as they emplane for Australia in a little under two weeks? A fair bit, undoubtedly, but India have overcome more challenging odds in the past, notably in 2020-21 when they were shot out for their lowest Test score (36) in Adelaide after which their captain returned home on paternity leave, and then kept losing key players match after match while being hamstrung by the Covid-19 pandemic-fuelled restrictions.

That they still managed to secure an historic 2-1 triumph after starting the last Test in Brisbane without a single bowler who began the series in Adelaide is the stuff of legend. It is on the back of that ‘nothing’s impossible’ attitude that India will target a three-peat, against an Australian team that too is ageing and heavily reliant on skipper Pat Cummins (31), Mitchell Starc (34), Josh Hazlewood (33) and crack off-spinner Nathan Lyon (36) to do the damage.

Outrageous as it might sound, India's batters should be more at home in Australia than they were in Bengaluru and Pune. Lateral movement in the first Test and turn in the second proved their undoing against New Zealand. In Australia, the traditional challenges have been pace and bounce and these no longer hold the same threat for India’s batters as they once used to. There will be significant movement during the pink-ball, day-night Test in Adelaide but plenty depends on when teams bat. Under lights, the faster bowlers from both teams will be devastating; who the coin toss favours and how the match pans out will have a big say on which side is better able to exploit those conditions.

Apart from Yashasvi Jaiswal and Sarfaraz Khan, all of India’s top-order batters have played Test cricket in Australia previously. Shubman Gill aside, they have all been on more than one tour Down Under with reasonable success, feeding off the bounce which provides value for strokes. The red Kookaburra doesn’t do a great deal once the seam flattens out and the ball gets softer, which will therefore, require the top three – Jaiswal, skipper Rohit Sharma and Gill – to see off the brand-new cherry and the set the game up for the middle-order merchants.

Australia’s ill-conceived plan to push Steve Smith to open the batting after David Warner's retirement so that Cameron Green could be accommodated in the middle order has died a natural death, with the all-rounder set to miss most of the series following back surgery. For all his brilliance, Smith at the top of the order isn’t a natural fit; eight innings against West Indies and New Zealand produced only one score in excess of 35 and a return to the middle order will clearly strengthen Australia, though a reliable partner for Usman Khawaja needs to be unearthed.

Do India really stand a chance against Australia?

There is experience aplenty in the middle bunch through Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh, though they will be wary of India’s versatile bowling attack. Like he was at the T20 World Cup, Jasprit Bumrah must again be at the top of his game, embracing the role of the spearhead and encouraging the others to lift themselves. It can’t be denied, though, that in Mohammed Shami’s continued absence, India’s pace attack is thin on experience. Bumrah and Siraj apart, the rest of the pacers – Akash Deep, Prasidh Krishna, Harshit Rana and Nitish Kumar Reddy – haven’t toured Australia previously, the last three together having played just one Test. The onus on Bumrah and Siraj, therefore, will be even more pronounced, with the spinners expected to play only bit parts until the last two Tests, in Melbourne and Sydney.

Do India realistically stand a chance of retaining the Border-Gavaskar Trophy? That depends – on how quickly the batters adapt to Australia and how soon they are able to snatch the initiative, on how much support Bumrah gets with the ball, and how the players are able to manage their workloads during a demanding winter of Test cricket.

Do they have the team to do so? Certainly. It is imperative for Rohit, his deputy Bumrah and his predecessor Virat Kohli to assume massively influential lead roles. Otherwise, it could be one long, hard, hot and unforgiving summer Down Under.

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