Four teams will compete on Thursday, all aiming for qualification in the World Test Championship final. In Melbourne, located on the eastern side of the Indian Ocean, India will face Australia in the fourth Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series. Simultaneously, on the western side at SuperSport Park in Centurion, South Africa will host Pakistan in the first match of a two-match series.

South Africa did not begin their WTC cycle on a positive note, securing only one victory in their initial five matches, which placed them at the lower end of the points table. However, they dramatically reversed their fortunes by winning all of their subsequent five Test matches, including a series whitewash against Sri Lanka, propelling them to the top of the standings. Consequently, among the four teams, South Africa, utilizing an all-seam attack, is in the strongest position to secure a spot in the final. They require just one victory from either of their two matches against Pakistan to achieve this goal.

Nevertheless, Pakistan, currently positioned seventh in the table, has the potential to disrupt South Africa's plans, which could significantly benefit India, who is presently in third place.

How Pakistan can help India qualify for the WTC final

For India to reach the final for the third consecutive time without relying on other outcomes, they must secure victories in their final two Test matches against Australia. Should one match conclude in a draw and the other in a victory, India will require Sri Lanka to achieve at least one draw against Australia in the upcoming two-Test series scheduled for January, or for Pakistan to draw one match and win the other against South Africa.

In the event that India loses one match and wins the other, resulting in a 2-2 tie in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series, Rohit Sharma and his team will need Sri Lanka to defeat Australia by a score of 1-0 or for Pakistan to achieve a clean sweep against South Africa. Furthermore, if both Tests in Melbourne and Sydney end in a draw, India will need Pakistan to win both of their matches or hope that Australia is unable to secure more than one victory against Sri Lanka.

What are the chances of Pakistan pulling off a series win in South Africa?

Pakistan has faced significant challenges in Test cricket in South Africa, having suffered defeats in 12 out of 15 matches since their inaugural tour in 1995, with only two victories to their name. Notably, Pakistan recorded its lowest Test score of 49 at the Wanderers in 2013, highlighting their struggles in the region.

In addition, the team is currently experiencing a period of instability in international cricket. Earlier this month, former Australian cricketer Jason Gillespie, who played a pivotal role in their home series victory against England in October, stepped down from his position as head coach. Consequently, the Pakistan Cricket Board appointed Aaqib Javed as the interim coach, marking him as the fourth head coach in this World Test Championship cycle, following the departures of Mickey Arthur and Mohammad Hafeez after just one series.

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