Kolkata: Former Australia captain Ricky Ponting feels the absence of Mohammed Shami could severely handicap India in the upcoming five-Test match tour while predicting a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Australia. Shami, who had taken 16 wickets in India’s first-ever Test series win in Australia in 2018-19, had undergone surgery on his left Achilles tendon in February. He remains out of action though, with Bengal still not picking him for Ranji Trophy duty.

India were heavily relying on Shami getting match-fit for the Australia tour. But with Shami ruled out, it remains to be seen who will share the new ball with Jasprit Bumrah. Ponting believes that this will hurt India’s chances of taking 20 wickets in a game. “(Mohammed) Shami just leaves such a big hole in that bowling group,” said Ponting on the latest episode of The ICC Review. “Back then (in August) there was still some conjecture whether Shami would be fit or not. I think taking 20 wickets in a Test match for India is going to be the biggest challenge.”

India have been whitewashed by New Zealand at home but Ponting thinks they can win at least a Test in Australia. “I think they’ll bat well enough out here with the current group of batters that they’ve got. I think India will win a Test match somewhere through the five Test matches,” he said. “But I still think now, Australia probably look a bit more settled, a bit more experienced and we know that they’re a very hard team to beat at home. So I’ll stick with the 3-1 (prediction).”

India are the current holders of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, having won the last two tours of Australia 2-1. But the disastrous result at home against New Zealand—triggered largely by an inept batting performance—has raised concern that there might not be a third win in a row for India. India’s place in the top-two of the World Test Championship too is in peril because of the 0-3 defeat. Now, India need to beat Australia at least by 4-0, which looks highly unlikely in the current circumstances.

Rarely have Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli been off the boil at the same time. Kohli’s lack of runs is particularly worrying, given he is set to tour a country where he averages 54.08, his highest outside India. But Ponting, currently the head coach of the Punjab Kings IPL franchise, overlooked Kohli to tip Rishabh Pant as the highest scorer in the series. “Leading run scorer, I’m going to go - Steve Smith or Rishabh Pant,” he said. “With Rishabh back in the side and probably coming into bat in the middle order when the ball’s probably lost a bit of its shine and a bit of its hardness and the form that he’s in, I’ll go for him as one of the leading run scorers.”

Smith was opening the batting for a while but moving back to No 4, Ponting thinks, could inspire him to finish his career on a high. “I think Smith, the fact that he’s moved back down from opener to No.4 probably makes it feel like he’s got more of a point to prove…that maybe he shouldn’t have gone up to open in the first place and that No.4 is his spot and where he should have probably been the whole time and where he probably finished his career now,” said Ponting.

India are set to play five Tests in Australia this time. The 2020-21 tour had started on the worst possible note as India were shot out for 36—their lowest-ever Test score—in the Pink Ball Test at Adelaide, with Josh Hazlewood taking a five-wicket haul in that innings. With India again set to play a Day-Night Test at Adelaide, the possibility of an encore of that 2020 Test has increased. Quite expectedly, Ponting picked Hazlewood to be the top wicket-taker in this series, reasoning that neither Mitchell Starc nor Pat Cummins might play all five Tests. “I think Hazlewood, out of the Australian quicks, is right at the moment, is probably at the peak of his powers more than the other guys. So I’ll go with him for the leading wicket-taker,” Ponting said.

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