South Africa, under the leadership of Temba Bavuma, secured their place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final scheduled to take place at Lord's Cricket Ground in London in June 2025. The Proteas achieved this milestone by defeating Pakistan in the first Test of their two-match series, winning by two wickets. In pursuit of 148 runs, South Africa faced significant challenges, finding themselves at 99/8. Nevertheless, Kagiso Rabada (31*) and Marco Jansen (16*) successfully guided the team to victory in Centurion during the second session of Day 4.

Prior to the series against Pakistan, South Africa needed to secure just one victory to qualify for the WTC final. Consequently, the outcome of the second Test between South Africa and Pakistan is now inconsequential. The Proteas currently lead the WTC standings.

This development has intensified the pressure on India and Australia, who are competing in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. Both teams must perform flawlessly to secure their spots in the WTC final. With South Africa's triumph in the first Test against Pakistan, a repeat of the 2023 WTC final featuring India and Australia is no longer possible.

What must India and Australia do to qualify for the WTC final?

Following the drawn Test in Brisbane, Rohit Sharma's team's points percentage decreased from 57.29 to 55.88, placing them third in the WTC standings, behind South Africa and Australia.

There is currently an eight-point gap between Australia and India in the WTC standings. India has only one match remaining after the Melbourne Test, while Australia has three matches left—one against India and two against Sri Lanka.

India and Australia are vying for a total of 228 points, which underscores the significance of their upcoming encounters in Melbourne and Sydney.

India and Australia's WTC final scenarios:

Should India secure a victory in the Melbourne Test but conclude the series with a 2-2 draw following Australia's win in Sydney, they will complete their WTC cycle with a total of 126 points and a percentage of 55.26. However, Australia could surpass India by achieving two draws or at least one victory in their matches against Sri Lanka. This situation would also apply if Australia wins in Melbourne but loses in Sydney.

In the event that India draws the Melbourne Test and wins in Sydney, they would finish the WTC cycle with 130 points and a percentage of 57.01. For Australia to qualify for the WTC final, they would need to secure a 2-0 victory against Sri Lanka.

If India loses the Melbourne Test but manages to draw in Sydney, Rohit Sharma and his team would conclude with 118 points. Nevertheless, Australia would have surpassed this total by the end of the series.

Should India draw both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests, they would finish with 122 points and a percentage of 53.50. In this case, Australia would need to win at least one match against Sri Lanka to overtake India and qualify for the final.

Updated WTC standings:

South Africa (Q) (PCT 66.67)

Australia (PCT 58.89)

India (PCT 55.88)

New Zealand (PCT 48.21)

Sri Lanka (PCT 45.45)

England (PCT 43.18)

Pakistan (PCT 30.30)

Bangladesh (PCT 31.25)

West Indies (PCT 24.24)

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