Ricky Ponting, the three-time World Cup winner, continues to stick by his prediction that Australia will win the upcoming five-match series against India 3-1. Ponting's judgment stems from a few glaring issues pulling India down – the failure of their top order and the absence of Mohammed Shami, without whom picking 20 wickets appears to be a challenge for the touring Indian side. But most importantly, it's the body blow that India have taken following a poor show against New Zealand at home.

No one predicted India would lose to the Kiwis the way they did, incurring the first Test series defeat at home in 12 years and then getting whitewashed 0-3. However, the team and the players need to put the defeat on the back burner as the much-awaited Border-Gavaskar Trophy begins in three weeks' time. Despite India having triumphed Down Under the last two times, Ponting reckons India will struggle to win more than one out of the five Tests.

"I think India will win a Test match somewhere through the five Test matches. But I still think now, Australia probably look a bit more settled, a bit more experienced and we know that they're a very hard team to beat at home. So I'll stick with the 3-1," Ponting said while speaking on The ICC Review.

Shami's absence gives Australia edge: Ricky Ponting

The former Australia captain added that Australia's chances of beating India rise exponentially without Shami. The India pacer has been out of action since last year's ODI World Cup, undergoing surgery for an injured ankle. However, his road to recovery hasn't been smooth sailing, with Shami unable to recover on time. Shami was expected to be fit in time for the New Zealand Tests, but the India quick is still on the shelf, picking up a fresh injury that's ruled him out of Bengal's upcoming two Ranji Trophy matches.

Shami has taken 44 wickets in 12 Tests against Australia, so Ponting's assumption isn't exactly wrong. Then again, when India beat Australia 2-1 in 2020/21, Shami wasn't part of the series either, breaking his arm in Adelaide and getting ruled out.

"Probably more so now (than before)," Ponting said about Australia's chances against India. "(Mohammed) Shami just leaves such a big hole in that bowling group. Back then (in August) there was still some conjecture whether Shami would be fit or not. I think taking 20 wickets in a Test match for India is going to be the biggest challenge. I think they'll bat well enough out here with the current group of batters that they've got," mentioned Ponting.

The absence of Shami, however, does not affect India's pace bowling line-up. The experienced duo of Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj cannot be counted out, nor can the exciting youngster Akash Deep, who will likely be Bumrah's new-ball partner ahead of Siraj. The much-talked-about Harshit Rana is also in the fold, along with the returning Prasidh Krishna, both of whom are likely to be summoned if the need arises.

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