India's chances to qualify for their third World Test Championship (WTC) final in a row took a significant hit after Rohit Sharma and co suffered a shock series loss against New Zealand on Saturday. India lost the second Test against the Kiwis by 113 runs at the Maharashtra Cricket Association (MCA) Stadium in Pune to surrender a 0-2 lead in the three-match series. Chasing 359 to level the series, India's batting order collapsed like a pack of cards on a turning track on Day 3. Yashasvi Jaiswal's 77-run knock gave the hosts a glimmer of hope, but as soon as Mitchell Santner dismissed him, the hopes of chasing the total crashed and burnt.

Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja did try to put up a fight in the third and final session, but as soon as Ashwin (18) was sent back to the pavilion by Santner, all hopes of a magnificent comeback win were dashed. As a result of this win, New Zealand gained an unassailable 2-0 lead in the three-match series. This was also New Zealand's first Test series win in India, and it was also their first overseas series win ever since the start of the World Test Championship.

New Zealand's win in the second Test meant India's WTC points percentage dipped from 74 percent to 62.82 percent within eight days. India currently have 98 points from 13 matches.

However, Rohit and Co. still lead the WTC standings by a slender margin of 62.50 over second-placed Australia.

How India can qualify for WTC final set to be played at Lords in 2025

Despite suffering their first home Test series loss since 2012, India's chances of making it to the WTC final at Lord's, remain within their grasp. However, if some results go India's way, then it can also aid the team's bid to make it to the final, provided Rohit's men do not suffer further slip-ups.

India will next square off against New Zealand in the third Test at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. This would be India's last home Test in the ongoing WTC cycle, and after this match, Rohit Sharma and co will travel to Australia for the marquee Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

It is important to mention that apart from India, New Zealand and Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka are also gunning for the WTC final qualification.

If India want to qualify for the final without depending on others, the side cannot afford to suffer another defeat in their remaining six matches. After losing the second Test against the Kiwis, India can now only afford a maximum of one draw and five wins to finish on a PCT of 71.05.

If the side manages to win all their remaining six Tests, then India will accumulate 170 points at a fabulous PCT of 74.56. However, to achieve this point percentage, India needs to win the final Test against New Zealand and defeat Australia 5-0 Down Under.

A minimum of two wins will keep India in contention, however, then some other results need to go their way. If Rohit Sharma and co want to maintain their PCT over 60, then the side must win at least two Tests and draw four matches.

Who can challenge India in the WTC final race?

Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and South Africa are all in with a chance to make it to the final. Sri Lanka has an outside chance if they win all their remaining games and India lose some crucial points along the way. Sri Lanka has four Tests remaining -- two against South Africa away and two against Australia at home in 2025.

South Africa are in the strongest position to make the final. Recently, the Proteas defeated Bangladesh in the first Test and they have one more Test in Bangladesh. South Africa will also play Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home, and if the Proteas win all their games, their PCT would stand at 69.44, leaving India with a task of not conceding another defeat and drawing only one game.

Australia can make it to the WTC final with four wins from their remaining seven Tests—five at home against India and two against Australia. However, despite holding onto the top two spots, it is highly unlikely that India and Australia will both make it to the WTC final.

New Zealand have an outside chance of making it to the final, despite registering their first Test series win in India. New Zealand can only finish at a best PCT of 64.28, provided they win their remaining four Tests -- one against India and three against England.

India had made it to the WTC final in 2021 and 2023. Can the side make it to their third final in a row? Only time will tell.

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