In 2012, Novak Djokovic encountered Rafael Nadal for the first time at the Australian Open. The final, frequently regarded as one of the most remarkable matches in the Open Era, extended for 5 hours and 53 minutes. Both Nadal and Djokovic struggled to remain upright during the presentation ceremony, necessitating chairs for them on stage immediately following the match. They both acknowledged it as the "most gruelling and physically exhausting match" they had ever participated in, marking it as a pivotal moment in the Djokovic–Nadal rivalry, which is recognized as the most significant contest in men's singles history.

Nadal announced his retirement from professional tennis last November; however, Djokovic will face a new 'Rafa' when he competes at the Rod Laver Arena on Tuesday against Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. This match will also be Djokovic's first encounter with the Spaniard in Melbourne, with Djokovic currently holding a 4-3 advantage in their overall head-to-head record following his victory in the Paris Olympics final.

“Like most of our matches, I hope Carlos and I can engage in a great battle. There have only been two mismatched encounters between us. I performed well against him at the 2023 ATP Finals, and he responded strongly in last year's Wimbledon final,” he remarked.

“The other matches were lengthy and demanding. They remind me of my contests against Rafa Nadal in terms of the intensity and energy we both bring to the court,” he further stated.

Why Alcaraz will win against Djokovic?

It is uncommon for a player to enter a match at the Australian Open against Novak Djokovic as the favourite. Although Alcaraz has yet to secure a victory over the Serb on hard courts, including their notable encounter in the Cincinnati Open final of 2023, his recent performance in Melbourne positions him favourably in this matchup.

During the off-season, Alcaraz dedicated significant time to enhancing his serve, humorously referring to himself as a "serve bot" after achieving 14 aces in his second-round victory over Japan's Yoshihito Nishioka. He boasts an impressive 80 per cent win rate on his first serve and 59 per cent on his second; however, he has only managed to land 66 per cent of his first serves. This statistic places him below the top 50 for first serve percentage in this year's tournament, a category in which Djokovic also falls short, having achieved a 64 per cent first serve rate at the 2025 Australian Open with a 7 per cent win rate.

The match may hinge on their first serves, as both players are closely matched on second serves. Alcaraz's superior performance against first serves in Melbourne last week, where he has a 41 per cent win rate against opponents' first serves, could be pivotal.

From the baseline, Alcaraz has been formidable, winning an impressive 58 per cent (206 out of 358) of baseline points during his quarterfinal run, significantly outpacing his competitors in Melbourne. According to an Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis, the average baseline win percentage in the tournament so far stands at 47, with only 22 players exceeding the 50 per cent mark. Alcaraz has also demonstrated strength at the net, achieving a 76 per cent win rate, and ranking fourth in the tournament.

Another aspect that gives Alcaraz an edge is his forehand performance. The four-time Grand Slam champion has recorded 79 winners with his forehand, which is 54 more than his backhand, while also committing eight fewer errors. Although he has slightly reduced the topspin on his forehand by four per cent, this adjustment has made his forehand more effective.

Why Djokovic will win against Alcaraz?

Although the statistics favour Alcaraz, Melbourne has consistently been a stronghold for Djokovic. He boasts an impressive record of 94 wins to 9 losses at the Australian Open, making him the player with the most match victories in the tournament's history, as well as at the Rod Laver Arena.

Djokovic did experience some difficulties in his initial two matches, dropping a set in each, which resulted in him spending a total of 11 hours on the court, compared to Alcaraz's 7 hours and 45 minutes. However, he returned to form in his subsequent matches, achieving straight-set victories and showcasing remarkable ball-striking and defensive skills.

With Alcaraz facing challenges in landing his first serves, Djokovic will be poised to capitalize on his second serves, having achieved a notable 59 per cent success rate on those deliveries. Additionally, Djokovic aims to prolong the rallies, an area where he has excelled despite dealing with respiratory issues throughout the tournament. Notably, 20 per cent of his rallies have involved more than nine shots, during which he has won 93 out of 147 points contested.

Who will win?

It is consistently challenging to dismiss Djokovic in any competition, particularly in a match at the Australian Open. However, Alcaraz is expected to be the slight favourite in their quarterfinal encounter. What remains particularly intriguing is whether this matchup will rival the legendary 2012 showdown between Nadal and Djokovic.

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