The Gabba Test between Australia and India is poised for an exhilarating conclusion. On Day 4, Akash Deep and Jasprit Bumrah delivered exceptional performances, enabling the visitors to evade the follow-on. The responsibility now rests on Pat Cummins and his team to devise a strategy that will steer the match in their favour. Although India has successfully avoided the follow-on, much to the delight of Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, and Gautam Gambhir, they remain in a precarious position.

As Day 5 approaches, Bumrah and Akash will resume batting with India's score at 252/9, still trailing by 193 runs. Australia, missing Josh Hazlewood due to injury, will aim to conclude the Indian innings swiftly on the final day to establish a substantial lead. At this juncture, three outcomes appear possible: an Australian victory, a draw, or a highly improbable win for India. Rain is forecasted for Day 5, but should the weather permit, a thrilling contest is anticipated at the Gabba.

One intriguing possibility involves a bold strategy: Will Cummins be willing to forfeit their second innings to secure a decisive result? However, a more pressing question arises: Are such actions permissible under the rules of the game?

The answer is affirmative. A captain is indeed permitted to make this decision. According to Law 15.2 of the MCC Rule Book, which addresses the forfeiture of an innings, "A captain may forfeit either of his/her side’s innings at any time before the commencement of that innings. A forfeited innings shall be considered to be a completed innings."

For instance, if Australia dismisses either Akash or Bumrah with the first ball of Day 5, their lead would stand at 193. Should Pat Cummins opt to forfeit the innings at that point, India would be required to bat again, with a target of just 194 runs. If this scenario unfolds, India could potentially secure an unexpected victory, as chasing 194 should be within their capabilities. Nevertheless, the question remains: Will Cummins take that gamble?

It is plausible that Cummins and the Australian management would prefer to avoid a target of 194, as it would be comfortably within reach for the visiting team, making it an appealing objective for them to pursue.

How can Australia move the game forward and put India under pressure?

A maximum of 98 overs may be bowled on the final day, contingent upon weather conditions. Australia will aim to secure the last wicket promptly when they take the field on Day 5. The home team will then seek to accumulate quick runs to advance the game and exert pressure on their opponents.

India's top order has faced significant challenges since the series commenced, with Kohli, Rohit, Shubman Gill, and Yashasvi Jaiswal (aside from the 161 scored in Perth) struggling to amass sufficient runs. Despite the pressure on the batting lineup, it is reasonable to expect that Australia will require more than two sessions to dismiss the visitors, who triumphed in the Gabba Test during the 2020-21 tour.

Cummins and his squad would ideally aim to set India a target of at least 270-300 runs, compelling them to bat for 60 overs. However, this scenario does present an opportunity for India, as scoring at a rate of 5 runs per over is quite feasible in contemporary cricket.

Nevertheless, given the current struggles of Kohli, Rohit, Gill, and Jaiswal, it seems improbable that India would aggressively pursue a victory; the visitors would likely be content with a draw, especially considering the evident relief among the Indian management when Akash struck a four over gully to avert the follow-on.

Finally, what if India finds themselves chasing a modest target, perhaps around 190 runs? While this should typically favour India in nine out of ten instances, one cannot dismiss the potential for a disheartening outcome. India has experienced batting collapses in the past, and the top order has exhibited a lack of confidence recently, with several batting failures. The memory of their disappointing performance against New Zealand in Mumbai, where they were bowled out for 121 while chasing a target of 147, remains fresh.

Thus, the onus is on Australia, as they are currently in control of the match. However, it is important to note that with Josh Hazlewood ruled out for the remainder of the match, Cummins and Mitchell Starc will face a considerable workload.

With the upcoming Test in Melbourne commencing in one week, Australia has much at stake. Should India secure a draw, the series will be tied at 1-1 as they approach the Boxing Day Test, setting the stage for a thrilling penultimate clash between the two sides.

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