The second half of 2024 seems ready to hit us like a tsunami in terms of content. While we’ve just witnessed the billion-dollar success of Deadpool & Wolverine in theaters, we’re now gearing up to see Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux on the big screen in just a month. The tug-of-war between the two franchises—one from the MCU and the other from DC Elseworlds—is intriguing because they are currently at loggerheads (though it’s healthy competition). The Lady Gaga and Phoenix starrer is inching closer to release, and with just a few weeks left until its theatrical debut, early estimates predict a strong opening for the sequel to the second-highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time. 

Joker 2 To Witness Bumper Opening?

However, the catch is that early estimates place Joker: Folie à Deux well behind the opening of Deadpool & Wolverine. For the uninitiated, Joker: Folie à Deux is directed by Todd Phillips and exists outside the main DCU, in the DC Elseworlds. The film is a musical that continues the story from the first installment and stars Joaquin Phoenix as Arthur Fleck and Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn as they meet in Arkham Asylum and the story progresses. The first Joker (2019) was a monstrous success, earning over a billion dollars and winning Joaquin Phoenix the Oscar for Best Actor.

As we approach the release date of Joker: Folie à Deux, which is October 4, 2024, in the West, and October 2, 2024, in India, early box office estimates have started rolling in. According to Shawn Robbins of Box Office Theory, the movie is set to enjoy an opening between $120 million to $150 million in the domestic market. These are significant numbers, especially considering that the post-pandemic effect on box office sales is still evident. It also surpasses the opening of the first film, which had a $96 million domestic opening and eventually grew substantially.

Deadpool & Wolverine Was Even Bigger

However, despite an estimated opening of $120 million to $150 million domestically, Joker: Folie à Deux (aka Joker 2) still lags behind Deadpool & Wolverine, which shattered every prediction and went far beyond expectations. The Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman starrer opened to a $211 million domestic debut, which is much higher than the $150 million projected for Joker 2. That said, Joker 2 could still prove the estimates wrong and perform a magic spell at the box office, possibly bringing it closer to or even surpassing the MCU film’s opening numbers.

Meanwhile, it was only recently that Deadpool & Wolverine dethroned Joker (2019) as the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever. Based on the numbers at the time it surpassed the Joaquin Phoenix starrer, Deadpool & Wolverine became a historic film and a savior for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, delivering a box office bonanza after a long dry spell. The Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman starrer earned a total of $1.086 billion (still counting), compared to Joker’s $1.079 billion at the global box office, now standing as the highest-grossing R-rated movie in cinema history.

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